Windows Now

They may very well sell 20% more iPhones, though I'd give them 9 months vs. 6.  I think Vista is the best Windows OS yet, I develop everyday in ASP.NET (and Delphi and PHP as well but you get the point) and those Mac ads send me into a frothing rage with how much FUD they contain BUT...

...Windows Mobile sucks.  Sucks in a way that only a nerd would love and your basic consumer hates.  My wife used a non-Mobile PDA, can't remember what it was, a Palm? anyway she had no prior PDA experience yet she was instantly productive on it.  Then her work standardized on a Mobile-based product and she actually had to pull the manual out just to do basic tasks, which is instantly a bad design for a consumer product.  Next I tried and after 30 minutes of finally figuring the thing out I realized why the iPhone is doing so well, because Mobile is the most unintuitive bunch of pixels I've ever used.  

If you are someone that enjoys installing applications and upgrading software and updating firmware then I'm sure Mobile would be a joy, but for your actual non-nerd PDA user it's a nightmare.  If you can't have a positive, useful experience in all major areas straight out of the box without looking at the manual then it's time to rethink things.  People put up with the iPhone's shortcomings because the things it *does* do it does superbly.

I also know that AT&T just beefed up their 3G, at least the Rocky Mtn region and that the 3G iPhones are coming which is probably why Apple is so confident that the iPhone will soon fly off the shelves.  3G + Exchange support + SDK + coming price drop?  I'll make a wager of your favorite beer that they will hit their target and probably exceed it.

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